Monday, July 5, 2010

Top 10 Ideas for the Week of July 5, 2010

After looking at over 500 charts and posting my thoughts on over 175 of them I have found some good setups for the week. For the first time they are all on the short side. From my lists I found no decisively higher setups. Closest thing was some potential breakouts that could go either way. Not too surprising since we closed the week with a bunch of bearish engulfing candles on the weekly index charts, gold and oil looking toppy and the dollar looking for a bottom. The daily charts were not much better with index ETF's showing down moves finding or searching for support. With that backdrop here are some ideas for the week in no particular order.

1. Alaska Air Group, Ticker: ALK

Close to losing support of the 100SMA. The 100SMA has been support during this 1 yr run up. A break sees the end of run and a test of the 200SMA at 36.80. On a bounce can test resistance at 46.38.

2. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Ticker: CMG

Waving its 2nd bear flag after a top at 156. Through 135 sees 127ish as next level of support. The weak and rolling 50SMA is resistance.

3. Shanda Interactive Entertainment, Ticker: SNDA

In a descending triangle with support at 38.20. Volume declining, doesn't look good. Support below at the 33.70 - 34.00 area then 30.83. Resistance at the 50/100 SMA convergence at the downtrend line near 42.50 and 200SMA above that.

4. Hi Tech Pharmacal Co., Ticker: HITK

Had a failed break out and now is struggling at the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. Below 20.5 sees 13 target.

5. Human Genome Sciences, Ticker: HGSI

Closing in on filling the gap to 21.71. Support under that at 18 before a possible steep ride down. 25.30 is resistance.

6. JP Morgan, Ticker: JPM

Looks to test 31.80 area down from 35.83. Resistance at 37.

7., Ticker: AMZN

A bear flag is forming after a drop just below the 110.62 gap. If falls out of flag 97.82 is in play. Resistance is at 110.62 then 114.40. (Disclosure - I have been short for a while)

8., Ticker: PCLN

174.80 has been support lately. A break below that tests 157.70. If it holds can run to top of channel at 200. Closest to a long set up I can give you.

9. Cliffs Natural Resources, Ticker: CLF

The short that keeps on giving. Flagging now. If it loses the 46.40-.80 support area then likely to fall to test 40. Resistance above at 50.20.

10. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Ticker: FCX

58-60 area has been a support area. It is now near the bottom of that and still looking weak. Below 58 can fall to the 52.77 Fibonacci level retracing 50% of its up move. 61.51 is resistance above.

Bonus: Origin Agritech Limited, Ticker: SEED

Holding support just above the gap level of 6.81. If it loses that level, a gap fill to 5.80-6.00 area can happen. If it holds then resistance is at 8.40-8.54. Straddles? Wait for BO and play direction? Wider strangles? Condors? What is your poison?

Short week, trade'm well!

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