Friday, July 2, 2010

From the Charts: Macro Week in Review/Preview 7-2-2010

Can you remember back to last Friday? We closed the week with a bunch of bearish engulfing candles on the weekly index charts, gold and oil looking toppy and the dollar looking for a bottom. The daily charts showed down moves finding or searching for support, gold basing for a move higher and oil and the dollar in ranges. Monday came and it seemed like all indicators were basing. Then came Tuesday and everything started to breakdown. I gave a preview of that Tuesday night with some key indicators on the monthly charts which all looked ugly. Then the cliff dive. Let's look at the details:

Gold Daily

Gold Weekly

Gold was in a range and then fell off the cliff after quarter end. It came back today but stopped short of the 50SMA. Still looks week on the daily with support around 1167. Turning to the weekly it seems gold is ready to test the bottom of the channel near 1184 at the very least. Looks like some downside.

Oil Daily

Oil Weekly

Both the daily and the weekly charts show Oil looking lower and testing the 70 - 71 area. Resistance above is first at 74.50 then 76 -78 from the weekly. Additionally on the weekly oli retested the lower bound of the wedge and failed. Seems like a lower range.

US Dollar Index Daily

US Dollar Index Weekly

The Dollar Index printed an inverted hammer signaling a potential reversal, but wait for confirmation. If it moves up resistance is at 85.46. The weekly shows why you should wait on confirmation. It had an inverted hammer last week which failed this week and looks lower to 83.16. So which way? The weekly takes precedence so look for lower first.

VIX Daily

VIX Weekly

The daily VIX chart showed support today at 30, still at an elevated level. Looking at the weekly, shows that 28.25 is a key level of support. it is off of its recent highs but still a higher base.

SPY Daily

SPY Weekly

The SPY daily chart looks weak flagging after the fall this week near support at 102.46. Below that support is at 100.55 and resistance at 104.15 - 104.38 area. The weekly shows nearly the same resistance at 104.50 but additional support at 101.50 before 99.50. This is going lower.

IWM Daily

IWM Weekly

The daily chart for IWM shows a breakdown out of the box and a search for support. It is going lower. It looks like it will find it at 58.40 first then 56.50 with resistance above at 61.30. The weekly chart has nearly identical support (58.47, then 56.48) and resistance higher at 62.25. Also going lower.

QQQQ Daily

QQQQ Weekly

The QQQQ daily chart is trying to hammer its way back higher from the 42.50 support level, same support as in February, with support below that at 40.60, and resistance above at 43.50. This weekly chart also shows the same support as daily, 42.50 then 40.71. Resistance on the weekly is slightly higher at 44.10. Not quite a triple but if the QQQQ's lose the 42.50 area I would not be surprised.

Percent of Stocks In S&P 500 Below Their 200Day SMA

I like to look at this chart occasionally as it shows some insights not on the price charts. Still a long way to go before the levels leading to the March lows, but getting interesting.

That is it for the week. Looks like a continued downtrend to me in almost everything. I will post some individual names this weekend and Top 10 Ideas Sunday. Have a great weekend!

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