Top 10 Ideas for the Week of July 19, 2010

After looking at over 500 charts and posting my thoughts on over 200 of them I have found some good setups for the week. Again a week makes a big difference in view. Too much churning. Last week there were 6 long set ups, one short and 3 potential break outs, where they could go either way. This week there are 8 short set ups two potential break outs and one long idea. These should be viewed in the context of the macro view which looks lower next week for equities and gold. Oil seems to be doing better. Watch the dollar index for signs of a bounce otherwise room below. Here are the top ten, tonight in no particular order:

1. Helix Energy Solutions, Ticker: HLX


Falling out of a long channel between 10 and 17. If it gets below 9 it can test 7.25 then 6.

2. Callon Petroleum, Ticker: CPE


Fell out of an ascending triangle and now broke through the 100SMA. Next support is at 5 then 4.50.

3. Visa, Ticker: V


Head & Shoulders top forming, with the peak at 83.79 and neckline at 70.11. A break of the neckline makes for a target on completion of 56.43.

4. Nanometrics, Ticker: NANO


Testing the bottom of a symmetrical triangle near 8.6. A confirmed break out lower, I will be using 8, sees 7 as next support followed by 6. If it bounces the resistance is at the SMA's near 10.

5. Hi-Tech Pharmacal, Ticker: HITK


Broke lower out of a symmetrical triangle. it will see some support at 19 and 18 on the way to the target of 14.

6. Dendreon, Ticker: DNDN


In a broadening descend wedge. It just rejected the top of wedge and the 200SMA. Now it looks clear to run down to support at 27.20.

7. Madison Square Garden, Ticker: MSG


Fell out of a symmetrical triangle shortly after the LeBron news died. The target is 17.

8. National Presto Industries, Ticker: NPK


Heading to test support at 90. If it fails there the next support is at 83.30. If it bounces at 90 then resistance is at 95.

9. Shanda Interactive Games, Ticker: SNDA


In a descending triangle with support at 38.20. Breaking support leads to next support below at the 33.70-34 area then 30.83. If it breaks higher then resistance above is at the 50/100 SMA area. If it gets there then can try the 200SMA above that.

10. Whirlpool, Ticker: WHR


Touching the 90 support area. If it fails there then 85.52, the 200SMA, below is support after that. If it bounces off of 90 then can play to resistance at 95.11.

Bonus Idea: Teekay LNG Partners, Ticker: TGP


A beast in the current market. Hitting new ATHs. Just keeps going up. Use 31 as a stop or support.

Trade'm well!

Top 10 Ideas for the Week of July 5, 2010

After looking at over 500 charts and posting my thoughts on over 175 of them I have found some good setups for the week. For the first time they are all on the short side. From my lists I found no decisively higher setups. Closest thing was some potential breakouts that could go either way. Not too surprising since we closed the week with a bunch of bearish engulfing candles on the weekly index charts, gold and oil looking toppy and the dollar looking for a bottom. The daily charts were not much better with index ETF's showing down moves finding or searching for support. With that backdrop here are some ideas for the week in no particular order.

1. Alaska Air Group, Ticker: ALK


Close to losing support of the 100SMA. The 100SMA has been support during this 1 yr run up. A break sees the end of run and a test of the 200SMA at 36.80. On a bounce can test resistance at 46.38.

2. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Ticker: CMG


Waving its 2nd bear flag after a top at 156. Through 135 sees 127ish as next level of support. The weak and rolling 50SMA is resistance.

3. Shanda Interactive Entertainment, Ticker: SNDA


In a descending triangle with support at 38.20. Volume declining, doesn't look good. Support below at the 33.70 - 34.00 area then 30.83. Resistance at the 50/100 SMA convergence at the downtrend line near 42.50 and 200SMA above that.

4. Hi Tech Pharmacal Co., Ticker: HITK


Had a failed break out and now is struggling at the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. Below 20.5 sees 13 target.

5. Human Genome Sciences, Ticker: HGSI


Closing in on filling the gap to 21.71. Support under that at 18 before a possible steep ride down. 25.30 is resistance.

6. JP Morgan, Ticker: JPM


Looks to test 31.80 area down from 35.83. Resistance at 37.

7. Amazon.com, Ticker: AMZN


A bear flag is forming after a drop just below the 110.62 gap. If falls out of flag 97.82 is in play. Resistance is at 110.62 then 114.40. (Disclosure - I have been short for a while)

8. Priceline.com, Ticker: PCLN


174.80 has been support lately. A break below that tests 157.70. If it holds can run to top of channel at 200. Closest to a long set up I can give you.

9. Cliffs Natural Resources, Ticker: CLF


The short that keeps on giving. Flagging now. If it loses the 46.40-.80 support area then likely to fall to test 40. Resistance above at 50.20.

10. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Ticker: FCX


58-60 area has been a support area. It is now near the bottom of that and still looking weak. Below 58 can fall to the 52.77 Fibonacci level retracing 50% of its up move. 61.51 is resistance above.

Bonus: Origin Agritech Limited, Ticker: SEED


Holding support just above the gap level of 6.81. If it loses that level, a gap fill to 5.80-6.00 area can happen. If it holds then resistance is at 8.40-8.54. Straddles? Wait for BO and play direction? Wider strangles? Condors? What is your poison?

Short week, trade'm well!

Top 10 Ideas For the Week of June 21, 2010

Reviewed over 500 charts and posted over 150 this weekend. It was an interesting quadruple witching week. Gold is just flying, no questions about it, and the dollar appears to need some more time to consolidate. Oil and the equity indices all seem to be in ranges and need to be watched carefully. When they break the range they will move and you need to be ready. With that backdrop here are some ideas for the week in no particular order.

1. Apple, ticker AAPL


Broke out of a symmetrical triangle and made a new high. Price target is now 300.

2. Rambus Inc, ticker RMBS


Bear flag after a big drop, bodes for another drop. Target is 15.

3. ProShares Ultra Short 20+ Treasury, ticker TBT


Descending triangle completing, watching 37.50 for a break out. A break lower would have a target of 30ish.

4. American International Group, ticker AIG


This stock has historically traded off of Resistance/Support. If it breaks 38 expect a run to 43.82 - 44.82 and beyond that then 54.20/55.90. Above 55.90 there is clear air. Support is at the 200/100SMA.

5. Intercontinental Exchange, ticker ICE


Trying to break out of ascending triangle formed by SMAs and 122.50, target on break out and hold of 130 is 160.

6. Mastercard, ticker MA


215 is a crucial level to watch and can play either way. A break and hold higher sees 227 - 230. Failure sees support at 195 below.

7. Delcath Systems, ticker DCTH


A break below 8.75, leads to 6.93 next and further support then at 6. Make sure it sticks below 8.75 to play.

8. Cliffs Natural Resources, ticker CLF


Rejected at the 100SMA with the 50SMA driving down. Looks to test 200SMA again.

9. Lululemon Athletica, ticker LULU


Strong move higher. 50 is the next resistance and through there can try 60. Support at 44 below and then 39.81.

10. Shanda Interactive Entertainment, ticker SNDA


Descending triangle with support at 38.20. Volume declining, doesn't look good. Support below is at 33.70 - 34.00 area the 30.83. Resistance at the 50/100 SMA convergence at the downtrend line near 43.15 and 200SMA above that.



Bonus Idea: Sears Holding Corporation, ticker SHLD
Daily Chart


Under 76.80 now will see resistance at 70 below.

Trade'm well this week.